Seizing Power: The Strategic Logic of Military Coups

by Naunihal Singh

Overview

How coups happen and why half of them fail.

While coups drive a majority of regime changes and are responsible for the overthrow of many democratic governments, there has been very little empirical work on the subject. Seizing Power develops a new theory of coup dynamics and outcomes, drawing on 300 hours of interviews with coup participants and an original dataset of 471 coup attempts worldwide from 1950 to 2000. Naunihal Singh delivers a concise and empirical evaluation, arguing that understanding the dynamics of military factions is essential to predicting the success or failure of coups.

Singh draws on an aspect of game theory known as a coordination game to explain coup dynamics. He finds a strong correlation between successful coups and the ability of military actors to project control and the inevitability of success. Examining Ghana’s multiple coups and the 1991 coup attempt in the USSR, Singh shows how military actors project an image of impending victory that is often more powerful than the reality on the ground.

In addition, Singh also identifies three distinct types of coup dynamics, each with a different probability of success, based on where within the organization each coup originated: coups from top military officers, coups from the middle ranks, and mutinous coups from low—level soldiers.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781421422565
Publisher:	Johns Hopkins University Press
Publication date:	01/16/2017
Edition description:	Reprint
Pages:	264
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 8.90(h) x 0.90(d)
Age Range:	18 Years

About the Author

Naunihal Singh is an assistant professor of international security studies at the Air War College in Alabama.

Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables vii

Acknowledgments ix

1 Introduction 1

The Importance of Understanding Coups 2

Understanding Coup Outcomes and Dynamics 5

Other Theoretical Explanations 10

Background of Cases 11

Overview of Chapters 13

2 Theory 15

Coups as Battles 15

Coups as Elections 17

Coups as Coordination Games 21

Conclusion 39

3 Counting Coups 41

Understanding Coup Attempts 42

Understanding Coup Outcome? 58

Understanding Coup Levels 71

Limitations 75

Conclusion 76

4 Coups from the Top of the Military 79

A Theory of Coups from the Top 79

The Case of Ghana, 1975 88

Ghana, 1978 96

Conclusion 107

5 Coups from the Middle 108

A Theory of Coups from the Middle 108

Ghana, 1967 115

Ghana, 1972 135

Conclusion 147

6 Coups from the Bottom 148

A Theory of Coups from the Bottom 148

Ghana, May 1979 154

Ghana, June 1979 162

Ghana, 1981 179

Conclusion 193

7 USSR, 1991: Three Days That Changed the World 195

Background 197

Analysis 203

Conclusion 220

8 Conclusion 222

Implications for the Study of Civil-Military Relations 222

Implications for Future Coups 224

Implications for Policy 227

Appendix: Description of Variables Used in Analyses 231

References 235

Index 247

What People are Saying About This

Nicolas van de Walle

Naunihal Singh’s highly original analysis of military coups rightly puts the dynamics within the military front and center. With a combination of methods and evidence from all over the world, Singh shows how the credibility of the coup plotters in the eyes of other officers largely determines whether the military sides with the coup and allows it to succeed or not. His book will change how we think of coups.

Leonardo R. Arriola

Well-written and organized, Singh’s argument and evidence represent a substantive contribution to the study of military coups in particular and the study of political instability in developing countries more generally. He offers a parsimonious theory with a clear set of predictions about the dynamics and the outcomes of coups.

Stathis N. Kalyvas

Naunihal Singh spells out a simple, yet powerful insight: the best way to understand military coups is by focusing on their dynamics rather than their correlates. He then goes on to show that coup outcomes are best predicted through a coordination framework, rather than by analyzing them as military or popularity contests. Fascinating and comprehensive, Seizing Power is the best piece of social science research on military coups so far. It should be read by all those interested in the study of political violence.

From the Publisher

Well—written and organized, Singh’s argument and evidence represent a substantive contribution to the study of military coups in particular and the study of political instability in developing countries more generally. He offers a parsimonious theory with a clear set of predictions about the dynamics and the outcomes of coups.
—Leonardo R. Arriola, University of California, Berkeley

Naunihal Singh’s highly original analysis of military coups rightly puts the dynamics within the military front and center. With a combination of methods and evidence from all over the world, Singh shows how the credibility of the coup plotters in the eyes of other officers largely determines whether the military sides with the coup and allows it to succeed or not. His book will change how we think of coups.
—Nicolas van de Walle, Cornell University

Naunihal Singh spells out a simple, yet powerful insight: the best way to understand military coups is by focusing on their dynamics rather than their correlates. He then goes on to show that coup outcomes are best predicted through a coordination framework, rather than by analyzing them as military or popularity contests. Fascinating and comprehensive, Seizing Power is the best piece of social science research on military coups so far. It should be read by all those interested in the study of political violence.
—Stathis N. Kalyvas, Yale University

Stathis Kalyvas

Naunihal Singh spells out a simple, yet powerful insight: the best way to understand military coups is by focusing on their dynamics rather than their correlates. He then goes on to show that coup outcomes are best predicted through a coordination framework, rather than by analyzing them as military or popularity contests. Fascinating and comprehensive, Seizing Power is the best piece of social science research on military coups so far. It should be read by all those interested in the study of political violence.

Editorial Reviews

This is a truly insightful book on a subject—coups as means of seizing power—that has been little researched and written about. Naunihal Singh is a true pioneer in that regard, and we must commend him for making a unique contribution to military knowledge with this important, highly useful, and valuable book.
—Biz India Magazine

Singh’s book is an informative read—even if you’re not planning a coup.
—Washington Post

A powerful book on military coups. Singh's argument is convincing and straightforward. . . . Impressive. This reviewer would not be surprised if Seizing Power quickly establishes itself as a must—read for students of coups and military politics in the years to come.
—Perspectives on Politics

An exceptional and sorely needed contribution to the literature on coups . . . Seizing Power also represents a useful companion to the study of civilian—military relations at a more general level . . . Singh ultimately delivers on crafting a novel theoretical insight along with a rich, layered research strategy to bolster his claims and advance our understanding of the dynamics of coup success or failure.
—Jeremy C. Graham, University of Notre Dame, International Studies Review

From the Publisher

An exceptional and sorely needed contribution to the literature on coups . . . Seizing Power also represents a useful companion to the study of civilian-military relations at a more general level . . . Singh ultimately delivers on crafting a novel theoretical insight along with a rich, layered research strategy to bolster his claims and advance our understanding of the dynamics of coup success or failure.

International Studies Review - Jeremy C. Graham

Singh’s book is an informative read—even if you’re not planning a coup.

Washington Post

A powerful book on military coups. Singh's argument is convincing and straightforward. . . . Impressive. This reviewer would not be surprised if Seizing Power quickly establishes itself as a must-read for students of coups and military politics in the years to come.

Perspectives on Politics

"Singh’s book is an informative read—even if you’re not planning a coup."

Washington Post

This is a truly insightful book on a subject—coups as means of seizing power—that has been little researched and written about. Naunihal Singh is a true pioneer in that regard, and we must commend him for making a unique contribution to military knowledge with this important, highly useful, and valuable book.

Biz India Magazine

This is a truly insightful book on a subject — coups as means of seizing power — that has been little researched and written about. Naunihal Singh is a true pioneer in that regard, and we must commend him for making a unique contribution to military knowledge with this important, highly useful, and valuable book.

Biz India Magazine - Paiso Jamakar