The Big Bet: Prediction Markets and the Future of Democracy

“In The Big Bet, Michael Auerbach explores the past, present, and future of the prediction market.... This is a dazzling and entertaining book.... But it is also an urgent warning about what we might gamble away if we become a society that wagers on everything.” —Patrick Radden Keefe, author of Empire of Pain

For many, Trump’s 2024 victory over Kamala Harris was a shock. He won the popular vote. He won decisively. But for those following political prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymar...