Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best

by Daniel Gardner

Overview

New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble

"Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them."—Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works

 

We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.

Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780452297579
Publisher:	Penguin Publishing Group
Publication date:	02/28/2012
Pages:	320
Product dimensions:	5.30(w) x 7.90(h) x 0.70(d)
Age Range:	18 Years

About the Author

DAN GARDNER is the New York Times bestselling author of books about psychology and decision-making. His books have been published in 21 countries and 17 languages.

In The Science of Fear, Gardner reveals why we so often worry about what we shouldn’t and don’t worry about what we should. The Guardian called it “an invaluable resource for anyone who aspires to think clearly.”

In Future Babble, Gardner looks at the dismal record of expert forecasts and why we keep listening to overconfident pundits. Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker said it “should be required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them.”

In Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Gardner and co-author Philip Tetlock distill important lessons about forecasting, teamwork, and good judgment. Superforecasting was chosen as one of the best books of 2015 by The Economist, Bloomberg, and Amazon.

Table of Contents

Preface ix

1 Introduction 1

2 The Unpredictable World 29

3 In the Minds of Experts 58

4 The Experts Agree: Expect Much More of the Same 91

5 Unsettled by Uncertainty 118

6 Everyone Loves a Hedgehog 143

7 When Prophets Fail 193

8 The End Is Nigh 234

Notes 267

Bibliography 287

Index 295

What People are Saying About This

Jonathan Beard

"Gardner not only skewers the pundits who predicted constantly rising oil prices and a Japanese takeover of the world, he also explains why we buy their books."

James Harkin

"Hugely enjoyable."

From the Publisher

"Future Babble is genuinely arresting... required reading for journalists, politicians, academics and anyone who listens to them."
-Steven Pinker, Professor of Psychology, Harvard University, author of How the Mind Works and The Stuff of Thought

"Well-researched, well-reasoned, and engagingly written. I'm not making any predictions, but we can only hope that this brilliant book will shock the human race, and particularly the chattering expert class, into a condition of humility about proclamations about the future."
-John Mueller, author of Overblown and Political Scientist, Ohio State University

"As Yogi Berra observed, 'it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.' In this brilliant and engaging book, Dan Gardner shows us how tough forecasting really is, and how easy it is to be convinced otherwise by a confident expert with a good story. This is must reading for anyone who cares about the future."
-Paul Slovic, Professor of Psychology, University of Oregon

"If you are paying a lot of money for forecasting services-be they crystal ball gazers or math modelers or something in between-put your orders on hold until you have had a chance to read this book-a rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose. You may want to cancel, or at least re-negotiate the price. For the rest of us who are just addicted to what experts are telling us everyday in every kind of media about what the future holds, Future Babble will show you how to be a bit smarter than what you usually hear."
-Philip Tetlock, author of Expert Political Judgement and Mitchell Professor of Organizational Behavior, Hass School of Business, University of California

Philip Tetlock

"A rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose . . . Future Babble will show you how to be a bit smarter than what you usually hear."

Editorial Reviews

"Gardner leaves plenty of prognosticators squirming on history's thumbtack."

The New York Times Book Review

"Hugely enjoyable."

James Harkin

"Gardner not only skewers the pundits who predicted constantly rising oil prices and a Japanese takeover of the world, he also explains why we buy their books."

Jonathan Beard

"A rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose . . . Future Babble will show you how to be a bit smarter than what you usually hear."

Philip Tetlock

"Everybody knows everything anyway," muttered old Jack Kerouac. Wrong: Nobody knows anything, writes Ottawa Citizen columnist Gardner (The Science of Fear, 2008), least of all the experts.

When it is possible to be wrong, people are wrong. There's no news in that. What is news is that nearly every expert prediction about the shape of future things is off the mark. By the accounts of the experts of the time, anyone born in the Great Depression was doomed to a life of want and scarcity, though instead they got peace and prosperity—indeed, writes the author, "there has never been a more fortunate generation." So why can't the pundits get it right? Gardner is strong on the observational but weaker on the whys and wherefores, relying on—yes—expert testimony that analyzes a body of "27,450 judgments about the future" to suggest that most forecasters are generally wrong, no matter what their politics, their relative pessimism or optimism or their experience. Those who succeed are "comfortable with complexity and uncertainty"—in other words, they're seasoned enough to qualify and hedge their predictions enough to escape criticism. Gardner takes a few jabs at such pundits as Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, who claims a 90 percent correct prediction rate (seeThe Predictioneer's Game, 2009), which Gardner heartily doubts. The author also revisits famed prognostications concerning peak oil and coming world famine. Yet, in the end, the book lacks hard data and phrases big questions to come up with the answers it seeks—just in the manner of your run-of-the-mill futurist.

Here's an expert prediction: This so-so book, despite its modest merits, will sink like a stone. Now watch it hit the bestseller lists.

Kirkus Reviews