Table of Contents
Foreword xi
1 Meet Skepticism 1
Building Vocabulary 1
Toward an Understanding of Critical Thinking 1
Breaking Bonds 3
Thinkers … Start Your Brains! 5
Critical Thinking Defined 6
Thinking Styles and Veridical Vending 7
Critical Thinking for Everyone 9
Traits of the Skeptic 11
Getting Serious 14
Dangerous Thinking 16
Hello, Skeptics! 20
Beliefs and Skepticism 21
Science and Skepticism 22
Applied Critical Thinking 23
Open-Minded Reasoning 24
The Benefits of CT 25
Wrapping Up 26
2 A Philosophical Detour 27
Building Vocabulary 27
Skeptical Roots 27
Science and Philosophy 29
Science and the Supernatural 30
Belief and Knowledge 32
Scientific Knowledge 33
Philosophical Knowledge 34
Fact vs. Faith 36
Relativism 39
The Appeal of Relativism 40
Relativism as a Philosophy and an Epistemology 41
Wrapping Up 44
3 Piercing the Scientific Veil 45
Building Vocabulary 45
Why Science Matters 46
Science for the Masses 47
Doing Science 48
Falsification 50
Peer Review 51
Methods of Research Design 54
Problems with Research Methodology 56
Cohorts and Confounds 57
Confounds 57
The (In)Famous Placebo 58
Ideomotor Effects 60
Ideomotor Madness 61
Accuracy and Validity 63
Reading the Data 64
Far from Perfect 65
Healthy Skepticism 67
A Note on Replication 67
One Study Doesn't Cut It 67
Publication Bias 69
Researching Research 70
Wrapping Up 71
4 The Language of Logic 73
Building Vocabulary 73
Logic and Its Importance 74
The Methods and Limits of Logic 75
Evidence 75
Inference 76
Reason 76
Judgment 78
Argument 79
Logical Fallacies 79
The Fallacy Zoo 80
The Non Sequitur 80
Argument from Authority 81
Argumentum Ad Hominem 81
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc 82
Argument from Ignorance 83
Argument 85
Everyday Argument 85
Persuasion 86
The Appeal of Argument 88
Argument in Logic 88
Structuring Meaningful Arguments 89
Arguing for a Cause 89
Inductive Reasoning 93
Deductive Reasoning 94
Wrapping Up 96
5 Building Your Skeptical Tool Kit 99
Building Vocabulary 99
The Importance of Pseudologic 99
The Slippery Slope 100
The False Dilemma 100
Moving the Goalpost 101
Special Pleading 102
Hasty Generalization 103
Countless Counterfeit 103
"Tu Quoque" 104
The Straw Man 104
Cognitive Biases 104
Storytelling Bias 105
The Confirmation Bias 106
Heuristics 109
Availability Error 110
Representativeness Reasoning 111
Anchors Aweigh 112
Presentation Matters 113
Pot Committed 113
Other Useful Thinking Tools 114
Occam's Razor 114
Regression Problems 115
Down with the Profound 115
Reasonable Belief 118
Wrapping Up 119
6 Self-Deception, Part 1-Memory 121
Building Vocabulary 121
Introducing Memory 121
Memory Is Not as It Seems 123
Memory's Known Associates 125
The (Un)Reliability of Memory 126
Pseudo memories 127
Eye Saw What You Did 127
False Memories 129
Creating Memories 132
Repressed Memories 132
Memory and the Law 134
Remember Forgetting 135
Our Ever-Changing Memories 136
Strange Memories 137
Two Distortions Do Not Equal Clarity 139
Wrapping Up 139
7 Self-Deception, Part 2-Belief 141
Building Vocabulary 141
Beliefs 142
Reasonable Belief 143
Origins of Beliefs 145
Evaluating the Source 146
The Expert Non-expert 148
Predatory Publications 150
Evaluating Beliefs 150
The Highways and Byways of Belief 152
The Roadways of Belief 154
Making Connections … Real or Imagined 156
The Roots of Belief 156
Mere-Exposure Effect 158
Continued Influence Effect 159
To Control or Be Controlled 159
Unchallengeable Beliefs 162
The "Essence" of Belief 163
Wrapping Up 165
8 Self-Deception, Part 3-Perception and Pattern Recognition 167
Building Vocabulary 167
Perception 168
How Our Brains Construct Our Realities 171
Tricking the Senses 171
The Lengths Our Brains Go to Trick Us 174
Trusting Skepticism 175
What You See Is NOT What You Get 176
Experiencing the World 177
The Illusion of Confidence 178
More Errors of Perception 181
Inattentional Blindness 181
Change Blindness 182
Expectancy Illusions 183
Pattern Recognition 186
Patterns Galore 186
Visual Pareidolia 188
Audio Pareidolia 191
The Prevalence of Pattern Seeking and Pattern Recognition 192
Wrapping Up 195
9 Innumeracy and the Deception of Coincidence 197
Building Vocabulary 197
Innumeracy 198
Coincidence Demystified 199
That's So Random 201
Searching for Meaning 202
Critical Mass and the Hundredth Monkey 205
Counting the Hits and Ignoring the Misses 207
Astrology and the Barnum Effect 209
Miracle Water 213
Toward a Better Understanding of What's Probable 213
Tipping the Scales 214
Probability 215
Wrapping Up 217
10 Practically Thinking 219
Building Vocabulary 219
The Scaffolds of Science 219
Tools of Science 221
A Fly in the Ointment 222
The Progressive Nature of Science 223
Where Science Meets Skepticism 228
The SEARCH Method 229
Step 1 State the Claim 229
Step 2 Examine the Evidence for the Claim 230
Step 3 Consider Alternative Hypotheses 232
Step 4 Rate, According to the Criteria of Adequacy, Each Hypothesis 234
The Socratic Method 237
Stage 1 Wonder 238
Stage 2 Hypothesis 238
Stage 3 Elenchus (Q&A) 238
Stage 4 Accept or Revise Hypothesis 240
Stage 5 Act Accordingly 240
Wrapping Up 241
11 The Fringes of Science 243
Building Vocabulary 243
Supernatural 244
Paranormal 244
The Boundaries of Science 247
Proof and Probability 250
Believing Is Not Enough 252
Superstition 253
Cause and Effect 254
Believing in Everything 257
Regression to the Mean 258
Wrapping Up 260
12 Standing in Science's Way 261
Building Vocabulary 261
Meet Pseudoscience 261
Fake Science in Action 265
Pseudojargon 269
Biases in Pseudoscience 272
Folk Knowledge 274
Evidence in Pseudoscience 275
Questioning Evidence 277
Health and Pseudoscience 278
Pseudomedicine 279
Homeopathy 281
Wrapping Up 287
13 Conspiracies-What "They" Want You to Think … Maybe 289
Building Vocabulary 289
Minding Conspiracy Theories 290
A Web of Beliefs 291
The Patterns of Conspiracy Theories 293
Conspiracy Theories as Rumors 294
The Fabric of Conspiracies 295
The Cognoscenti 296
Conspiracy Theory Demographics 298
Getting in Where You Fit In 298
The World Divided 300
Piercing the Psychological Veil 302
Making Connections 304
What You Get Is What You See 305
Weighing the Evidence 307
The Grandest of Grand 309
Manufactroversies 310
Conspiracy Theory-Inspired Beliefs 311
Vaccines Cause Autism 312
Human-Caused Global Climate Change 315
Wrapping Up 317
Acknowledgments 319
Notes 321
Works Cited 331
Index 369
