| Preface | iii |
| Figures | vii |
| Tables | ix |
| Summary | xi |
| Acknowledgments | xix |
| Abbreviations | xxi |
| Chapter 1 | The Challenge of Long-Term Policy Analysis | 1 |
| Quantitative LTPA May Now Be Possible | 3 |
| The Challenge of Global Sustainable Development | 7 |
| Surprise: The Constant Element | 8 |
| Organization of This Report | 8 |
| Chapter 2 | A History of Thinking about the Future | 11 |
| Narratives: Mirrors of the Present, Visions of the Future | 12 |
| Group Narrative Processes: Delphi and Foresight | 16 |
| Simulation Modeling | 20 |
| Formal Decision Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty | 25 |
| Scenarios: Multiple Views of the Futures | 29 |
| Assessing the State of the Art | 36 |
| Chapter 3 | Robust Decisionmaking | 39 |
| Decisionmaking Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty | 40 |
| Consider Ensembles of Scenarios | 45 |
| Seek Robust Strategies | 52 |
| Employ Adaptive Strategies | 57 |
| Combine Machine and Human Capabilities Interactively | 62 |
| Concluding Thoughts | 66 |
| Chapter 4 | A Framework for Scenario Generation | 69 |
| The Challenge of Global Environmental Sustainability | 69 |
| The "XLRM" Framework | 70 |
| Chapter 5 | Implementing Robust Decisionmaking | 87 |
| Overview: Interactive Analysis of Sustainable Development | 87 |
| Landscapes of Plausible Futures | 91 |
| No Fixed Strategy Is Robust | 96 |
| Exploring Near-Term Milestones | 103 |
| Identifying a Robust Strategy | 110 |
| Characterizing Irreducible Risks | 117 |
| Confronting Surprise in Sustainable Development | 121 |
| Chapter 6 | Policy-Relevant Long-Term Policy Analysis | 125 |
| Building Policy-Relevant Scenario Generators | 126 |
| Improved Navigation | 131 |
| A Diversity of Measures and Values | 135 |
| Engaging the Community of Stakeholders | 137 |
| Improving Long-Term Decisionmaking | 141 |
| Chapter 7 | Conclusion: Moving Past Familiar Shores | 145 |
| Appendix | |
| A. | Description of the Wonderland Scenario Generator | 149 |
| B. | Assessing Robust Strategies | 165 |
| Bibliography | 179 |
